Pakistan is now home to nearly half of all extremely poor people across an entire region spanning the Middle East, North Africa, and Afghanistan. That’s according to a new World Bank report released on Tuesday, October 7, 2026, which paints a troubling picture of rising poverty driven largely by one country: Pakistan.
The Headline Number: 48%
The World Bank’s Economic Outlook, released ahead of next week’s IMF-World Bank annual meetings, found that Pakistan accounts for roughly 48% of the people living below the $3.00-a-day poverty line across the entire Middle East, North Africa, and Afghanistan-Pakistan region, a grouping the bank refers to as “Menaap.”
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together make up most of the remaining 47%, meaning just four countries, Pakistan included, account for nearly all extreme poverty in a region spanning more than a dozen nations.
A Region Still Worse Off Than Before Covid
The World Bank flagged something unusual about this region: it’s the only one in the world where poverty remains above pre-pandemic levels, and is still climbing. In 2024, 14.3% of the Menaap region’s population lived on less than $3.00 a day, compared to a global average of 10.4%. At the slightly higher $4.20-a-day line, 26.9% of the region’s population fell below it, against 18.9% worldwide.
What’s Driving Pakistan’s Rising Poverty
The report ties Pakistan’s worsening numbers to a string of shocks over the past several years rather than a single cause. Between 2018/19 and 2024/25, Pakistan’s poverty rate rose by 6.4 percentage points at the $3.00-a-day line, and 3.2 percentage points at the $4.20-a-day line. The World Bank pointed to:
- The Covid-19 pandemic
- The devastating 2022 floods
- A macroeconomic crisis marked by high inflation and currency depreciation
- A prolonged period of economic adjustment that weakened household incomes and job opportunities
Pakistan’s Economic Outlook, According to the World Bank
| Indicator | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Current Account Deficit | — | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Fiscal Deficit | — | 2.6% | 3.5% |
The bank expects services, manufacturing, and livestock production to stay resilient despite rising import costs, though it warned that higher commodity and transport costs will likely add pressure to inflation and the country’s external balances.
Food Insecurity Remains a Serious Concern
The report singled out Pakistan as one of several places in the region facing acute food insecurity pressure, alongside Afghanistan, Djibouti, Lebanon, and the occupied West Bank and Gaza, as well as Yemen, which the bank flagged as particularly severe. At the $3.00-a-day line, poverty rates in Pakistan, Djibouti, Syria, and Yemen all approached or exceeded 20%.
Adding to the concern, the World Bank warned that a stronger-than-usual El Niño weather pattern expected in late 2026 could push food prices even higher. Pakistan, it noted, is directly exposed to this risk through shifting monsoon conditions.
Regional Conflict Adds Another Layer of Risk
The report also flagged economic fallout from the ongoing US-Iran conflict as a growing concern for the region, though it said the ultimate scale of the damage remains highly uncertain and will depend on how the conflict unfolds. Under a baseline scenario where disruptions continue through the end of 2026 without further escalation, the Menaap region as a whole is projected to contract by 2.1% in 2026, a sharp reversal from 3.3% growth in 2025.
As an oil-importing country, Pakistan remains exposed to the conflict’s ripple effects, including rising inflation from higher oil and commodity prices, shrinking fiscal space, weaker remittance inflows from the Gulf, and higher borrowing costs as insurance and risk premiums climb.
Why This Matters
A regional poverty report might seem distant from daily life, but these numbers reflect something more immediate: millions of Pakistani households slipping below, or staying stuck below, a bare subsistence income line, even as the country’s headline GDP growth ticks upward. Growth alone, in other words, hasn’t been enough to pull people out of poverty, a gap the World Bank’s own data makes hard to ignore.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of the region’s extreme poor live in Pakistan?
About 48%, according to the World Bank’s latest Economic Outlook, covering the Middle East, North Africa, and Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
How much has Pakistan’s poverty rate increased?
It rose by 6.4 percentage points at the $3.00-a-day poverty line, and 3.2 percentage points at the $4.20-a-day line, between 2018/19 and 2024/25.
What does the World Bank project for Pakistan’s GDP growth?
3.7% for FY2026 and 3.8% for FY2027, up from 3.2% in FY2025.
Why is poverty still rising in this region when it’s falling globally?
The World Bank says Menaap is the only region in the world where poverty remains above pre-pandemic levels, driven heavily by Pakistan alongside Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen.
What risks could make things worse for Pakistan?
A stronger-than-usual El Niño pattern expected in late 2026, continued fallout from the US-Iran conflict, and Pakistan’s exposure as an oil-importing economy to rising commodity and borrowing costs.
The World Bank’s report is a stark reminder that economic growth and poverty reduction don’t always move together. With Pakistan now accounting for nearly half of extreme poverty across an entire region, the numbers suggest the country’s recent economic pressures have hit ordinary households harder, and for longer, than headline growth figures alone would suggest.
